I am so weary of bird flu. Really weary of seeing that constant jabbering in the news, all saying the same thing. The headlines are contrived, flashing sensationalist nonsense that makes you think that the pandemic is already here. When in fact, it may be one bird that has tested positive for the virus.

Here are some fact thus far. The rate of human infection has not risen. The virus has not become more infectious to humans or more virulent. The virus also has not mutated, and there are no cases of human to human transmission. Right now, the biggest danger is the press and the reactions of the public to the POTENTIAL problem that the H5N1 bird flu may cause.

It has the potential to be a health problem, but as it exists now, it is simply not a particularly virulent disease for any human population. Nor it is highly contagious, despite the hype. It also can be treated with conventional medications for fever and respiratory illness. While the mortality rate does appear to be high, ranging from 33-50%, it is important to realize that most deaths resulting from substandard medical care. We also have not been told by any of the scientists or researchers who keep sending sound bytes over the air waves why there is any reason to assume mutations will occur any time soon. I mean, bird flu has been around a long time. Sometimes it mutates and infects humans, and other times it doesn’t. And aside from the 1918 pandemic, all other cases of mutated bird flu did not cause huge human dealth tolls.

Another factor to consider is that even it does cause a pandemic, the virus will likely be less lethal after it mutates to accommodate human-to-human transmission. Considering the number of “crises” that we’ve had in the past few years, it does seem that the public health community just likes to have a new crisis in the news every year or so. And while it may drum up fear for a while, it also has the reverse effect. Too many false alerts numb people, and desensitize them. So if there really is a health emergency, all too many may just consider it another false alarm, or attempt to stir up some sensationalism, or an attempt to sell a drug or vaccine.

The Bush administraton spent $700 million on the smallpox vaccine. They tried to drum up fear of a smallpox bioterror attack. But less than 10% of the designated “first responders” got vaccinated, for a variety of reasons. When the administration and the CDC were unable to convince healthcare workers to get it, all the while not really giving any explanation why smallpox had suddenly become a threat, the vaccine program was quietly shelved. And oddly enough, the danger of smallpox vanished! But Adventis, who made the vaccine, was $700 million richer. And just think of how that $700 million could have been spent in addressing real healthcare problems in the U.S.

Right now Roche is cleaning up on Tamiflu. Everybody is desperate for it, and shareholders at Roche are jumping up and down and rejoicing. So you really do have to wonder–is the health threat real, imagined, or what?